Phillips P. OBrien
Hi All,
An update on the big story of last night—which reveals the real peril that Ukraine and Europe find themselves in when dealing with the Trump Administration.
Yesterday the US and Russia can only be said to have brutally outmaneuvered the Ukrainians (and Europeans) and placed them on the horns of dilemma. The “Black Sea Ceasefire” as it is being called, was negotiated by the USA in one way with Ukraine and then another way with Russia. The result is that unless Ukraine now rejects it, or if Europe comes to its aid and does not agree to its sanctions busting terms—Russia will be handed a huge win and Ukraine will find itself in a more perilous position.
I’ve been trying to find out from some Ukrainians that I trust what happened, and here is my best estimate based on what I have found.
First: The US and Ukraine negotiated about a Black Sea Ceasefire on its own (no strings attached). The Ukrainians were not wild about it—as they have in many ways already achieved many of its goals on their own. The Ukrainians have already cleared the the Russian Black Sea Fleet from almost all of the Black Sea and forced it out of Crimea into Russia. At the same time, the Ukrainians have opened up shipping out of Odesa, and are now utilizing the port successfully to ship out grain, etc.
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