Christian Whiton
On Tuesday, U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators reached an agreement in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, that calls for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine also tacitly accepted a de facto framework in which the Trump administration will negotiate directly with Russia and either offer or impose an agreement on Ukraine.
Much remains undone. Russia has previously opposed a ceasefire that would halt its slow military advance, especially while Ukraine still holds Russian territory. Also, Ukraine has still not signed the minerals agreement that President Donald Trump has requested. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio extracted a promise from Ukraine to conclude a comprehensive agreement “as soon as possible.” In any case, Russian forces appear set to retake Russian territory in Kursk held by Ukrainian forces.
The recent fast-paced shuttle diplomacy and rapid changes in policy underline even more significant changes taking place in the U.S.-Russia relationship. By ending former President Joe Biden’s Europe-first foreign policy and blank-check support for Ukraine, Trump may induce Moscow to become less of an adversary on issues of great importance to the United States. Crucially, this may include China’s confrontation with America and its Asian allies. Encouraging greater distance between Russia and China could be as big of a “win” for Trump as ending the war in Ukraine.
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