Dr. Hasim Turker
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has marked a departure from the conventional trajectory of US foreign policy. His administration’s approach to Russia signals a recalibration of priorities, reflecting an underlying strategy aimed at reshaping global alignments in Washington’s favor. Rather than maintaining the confrontational stance of previous administrations, Trump appears to favor a more conciliatory approach toward Moscow, a shift largely dictated by the imperative of countering China’s rise. This shift, however, raises critical questions about its broader consequences, particularly for the transatlantic alliance and global stability.
Russia and China: The New Strategic Equation
For decades, US foreign policy has been characterized by a dual containment approach toward both Russia and China. However, Trump’s return to power suggests a shift in focus, prioritizing China as the primary geopolitical challenger while seeking to ease tensions with Russia. This change underscores a belief that continued antagonism toward Moscow only serves to push Russia further into China’s strategic orbit. The assumption behind this approach is that an entrenched Sino-Russian partnership presents the most formidable challenge to US hegemony. If the two powers deepen their military, economic, and diplomatic coordination, Washington faces a significantly more complex threat environment. By offering diplomatic and economic incentives to Russia, the Trump administration aims to weaken this partnership and prevent Beijing from leveraging Moscow’s resources in a future confrontation with the United States.
The urgency of countering China stems from its growing economic and military power. China has surpassed the United States as the world’s largest trading nation and advanced significantly in AI, semiconductor manufacturing, and quantum computing. The modernization of the People’s Liberation Army and its growing naval power challenge US strategic superiority in the Indo-Pacific. Meanwhile, Beijing’s global outreach through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative has significantly expanded its influence across Africa, Latin America, and even Europe. Against this backdrop, Trump’s foreign policy team views Russia as a secondary concern. While Moscow remains a geopolitical competitor, its ambitions are seen as more regionally focused, making engagement with Russia a strategic move to free up resources for the broader confrontation with China.
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