Can Kasapoğlu
Battlefield Assessment
Last week both sides won modest tactical gains. But no strategic changes altered the map significantly.
In eastern Ukraine, areas adjacent to Pokrovsk saw continued intensive combat, while the southern theater was relatively calm. In occupied Kherson, the Ukrainian Separate 14th Regiment successfully targeted a Russian training ground with cluster munitions. In Ukraine’s north, near Kharkiv, Russia conducted air and missile strikes. The Russian military continued to suffer more than 1,000 casualties per day, and Ukraine carried out multiple loitering munitions salvos targeting the Russian hydrocarbon network.
Kursk was a notable exception to the general battlefield stasis. Russia has been pushing hard in Kursk following the return of North Korean servicemen to combat operations. Alarmingly, the Ukrainian military lost 15 to 20 square miles in less than a week.
Ukrainian defense intelligence officials announced that they have been tracking a serious hike in Russian drone proliferation efforts, with the joint Russia-Iran drone plant in the Russian Republic of Tatarstan boosting production capacity. According to other Ukrainian officials, the Russian military has long sought to achieve the capability to launch 500 drones at Ukraine in a single salvo, a dangerous strike pattern if it can be realized. The increase in Russia’s drone production is an important trend that this report will continue to monitor.
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