Marcus Stanley
Costs of the war
The Ukraine War is inarguably the bloodiest and costliest war in Europe since World War II. While accurate casualty figures are difficult to come by, in September 2024, The Wall Street Journal estimated that the war had already resulted in more than one million casualties, with more than 250,000 dead and some 800,000 wounded. The carnage has only increased since then.
The war has also been a demographic and economic disaster for Ukraine — a smaller and more vulnerable country than Russia. Due to invasion and refugee flight, the resident population of Ukraine has declined to some 28–30 million, a population loss of one quarter when compared to the prewar figure of some 42 million. The nation faces a long-term demographic crisis. In 2024, Ukraine had the world’s highest death rate and lowest birth rate. Estimates are that its population size will continue to decline in the future, absent a return to peace.
Ukraine was already one of the poorest countries in Europe before the invasion, with the second-lowest gross domestic product, GDP, per person (ranking above only Kosovo) and a pre-invasion GDP of only about $200 billion. By the end of 2025, estimates suggest that the economic cost of the war to Ukraine will be a $120 billion cumulative loss in GDP and $1 trillion in damage to infrastructure and capital stock. When compared to the size of Ukraine’s already relatively poor prewar economy, these figures are staggering.
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