Lt. Col. Amos C. Fox, PhD, U.S. Army, Retired
A Ukrainian soldier pulls security during an antisabotage exercise as part of Rapid Trident 2021 at Combat Training Center-Yavoriv near Yavoriv, Ukraine, on 27 September 2021. Rapid Trident is designed to increase the efficiency of Ukrainian troops and improve compatibility among of the headquarters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the United States, and other NATO members. (Photo by Spc. Preston Hammon, U.S. Army)
While new technologies such as sensors, drones, and long-range fires are excellent complements to contemporary (and future) armed forces, they will have a minimal impact on the future operational environment. If we remove the sensationalism association with the terminology of sensors, drones, precision, and long-range fires, all we are essentially left with is the basic idea of “attacks from above,” which is a challenge that has hampered military forces since at least World War I.1
Today, however, we have the additional problem in the West that most militaries seek to limit the commitment of their own land forces into direct combat with a hostile force while preferring to leverage attacks from above as an adjunct to military victory. Viewed collectively, these two elements (i.e., “attacks from above” and limiting the commitment of one’s land forces to combat) can be referred to as “standoff warfare.”
Today, Western militaries make the case that standoff warfare will be how wars in future operational environments will be won. Multidomain operations doctrine, Project Convergence, and the slew of other sensor, precision, and long-range strike-centric concepts dominating military, academic, and policy discussions make this abundantly clear.2
Nonetheless, the wars of the twenty-first century demonstrate an alternative reality that is likely more realistic than the standoff warfare visions of the future. Wars of the future will remain fought for territory. They will remain fought by armies, or at least amalgamated forces fighting on land, for land. When attacked from the sky, they will seek refuge in the land—whether in bunkers, trenches, or urban areas. Attacks from the sky are empirically proven to be less effective against land forces hiding beneath the surface of the land or in urban terrain. Thus, to defeat a hostile army holding contested terrain, standoff warfare will not be the path to success in future operational environments. To win in future wars, Western militaries will require robust and resilient land forces that can address the unique challenges of land warfare while capitalizing on the technological advantages available to Western military forces. Put in more plain English, it will continue to take a land force to defeat a land force.
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