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10 March 2025

The Limits of a U.S.-China Deal

Brendan Kelly and Michael Hirson

In his first few weeks back in the Oval Office, U.S. President Donald Trump has taken a split-screen approach to his dealings with China, leaving U.S. financial markets, multinational firms, and Chinese leaders in limbo. Trump has already imposed a ten percent tariff hike on imports from China and threatened another increase. These moves will raise the U.S. weighted average tariff rate on Chinese goods by 20 percentage points over the course of just two months, much more than the 12 percent rise during his first term’s U.S.-Chinese trade war.

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