Russia’s domestic situation continues to deteriorate as it suffers the consequences of its war against Ukraine. Despite the Kremlin’s efforts to project an image of strength, Russia is no longer the superpower it once was. This is particularly evident in the state of the Russian economy. The Kremlin has prioritized bolstering its military-industrial complex at the expense of other sectors of the economy. Russian arms production, however, has experienced minimal growth despite reported increases. The war also has degraded Russian society as the regime attempts to militarize everyday life. School children are trained in patriotic education in an effort to instill pro-war values in Russian youth. Criminal violence is increasing as veterans return from war. The Russian people’s support for the war continues to decline, and President Vladimir Putin is resorting to repressive tactics to maintain the facade of control. These efforts to foster support for the war, however, have not boosted recruitment as fewer Russians want to become cannon fodder. As the Kremlin prolongs the war, these issues will only worsen.
Crumbling Economy and Military Industrial Complex:
- The Russian economy is grappling with serious structural issues, including dwindling economic reserves, labor shortages exacerbated by demographics, heavy war casualties, and mass emigration.
- Russia’s military-industrial complex is not modernizing at the rate of demand, meaning that Russia will not be capable of increasing arms production rates in the long term.
- Russian arms production has experienced minimal growth as government-reported increases construe data by masking it with inflation. Western sanctions hinder domestic production, forcing reliance on allies such as the People’s Republic of China and North Korea.
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