Speak softly and carry a big stick

Patrick Porter

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In a world where nuclear annihilation is possible, how much should we fear the danger of war escalating?

The question has resurfaced with the conflict in Ukraine. It last seriously arose for the West during the Korean War of 1950–53 and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. In Korea, Cuba and now Ukraine, a breed of “maximalist” war hawks offer the same answer: “not much”.

Indeed, they argue our anxiety is the problem. They lambast the policy of blunting Russian aggression whilst taking steps to avoid going to the brink. They accuse doubters of being feckless appeasers, branding policies short of maximalism as cowardly, irrational surrender to Russian coercion. It is folly, they say, to moderate Western efforts against Moscow, since we are already “at war” with Russia. To take Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats seriously is to fall prey to “self-deterrence”.

Since Putin’s “red lines” have proven false before, we should treat them all as bluffs. Shielded by our arsenals, “we” can refuse to be deterred, confident Russia will choose to be deterred. In the words of military historian Eliot Cohen, “What should we do in response to Putin’s nuclear bluster? Follow John Paul II’s wisdom: ‘Be not afraid.’”