Kenneth Payne
I'm sat at the airport, watching text scroll by on my MacBook. We're about 3/4 of the way through a very large tournament between a bunch of agents, including two AI ones, that are trying to decide how far to trust one another; or whether they can get away with cheating, and so scoop a bigger prize. And while I wait, I'm scrolling the news about Ukraine on my iphone. Will there be a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, brokered by President Trump? How far can the Ukrainians trust President Putin to keep to any deal? How far can they trust President Trump to backstop it?
The two are connected, of course. That's why strategic studies scholars have, over the decades, spent so much time working with game theory. In strategy, you need to understand your enemy, whether that's in a simplified model of bargaining, or in the messier reality of war.
My agents are playing an iterated Prisoners Dilemma. It's a great way of exploring trust. If you only play the game once, cheats can prosper. But if you play it over and over, a reputation forms; and you have to think really carefully about whether and when to cheat - or 'defect' in the lingo.
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