Dylan Motin
The fall of Goma, the administrative center of the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s (DRC) North Kivu Province, to the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in late January has significantly upped the ante in the country’s longstanding unrest. What had until now been a localized civil war between the Kinshasa government and a pro-Rwandese rebellion threatens to set ablaze the region.
By taking Goma, the M23 and Rwanda crossed a Rubicon, as Kinshasa’s leaders cannot brook an all-out invasion of North and South Kivu without a response. The two provinces counted prewar over 15 million inhabitants and are home to fabulous natural resources. After the fall of Goma, angry Congolese rioters descended upon Kinshasa to ask for an international reaction against the Rwanda-M23 challenge. These people are unlikely to tolerate government inaction for much longer. That the Alliance Fleuve Congo, the political arm of the M23, vowed to march on Kinshasa renders the status quo all the more untenable for Congolese president Félix Tshisekedi. Even if government forces managed to contain the M23 in the Kivu, the region might become an enclave from which a nationwide offensive might start at a later date. One recalls the fate of the Assad regime, recently crushed by a rebellion long confined to Syria’s northwest and believed to pose no serious threat. For all these reasons, Kinshasa has little option other than to mount a massive military response to retake its eastern borders.
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