Stephen Blank
My Reply to Anthony Constantini
On March 11 Anthony Constantini, a Fellow at Defense Priorities published an article arguing first that because the Russo-Ukrainian war has become a war of attrition Russia will inevitably prevail due to its manpower advantages over Ukraine. Second, he contends that “America has absolutely no national interest in providing security guarantees” to Ukraine. Instead, our “overriding interest” lies in avoiding war with Russia.
These points are hallmarks of the MAGA movement and have also been made by Vice-President Vance. Unfortunately, despite the loudness and supposed authority with which they are proclaimed, these arguments are not supported by the facts or by history which is a better guide here than superficial political arguments. First, the war has descended into a war of attrition for now in large measure because of the inconstancy of U.S. support for Ukraine under both the Biden and Trump administrations. If Ukraine had received the military assistance it needs on a constant basis, that assistance coupled with the innovative work of Ukraine, e.g. its manufacture of drones that can even hit Moscow, may well have turned this into a war of movement. We should remember that Ukrainian forces have successfully invaded Russian territory in Kursk Oblast, forced the Black Sea into what amounts to hiding in its home port of Novorossiysk, and made Crimea untenable as a military base for Russia. Those are not signs of a permanent war of attrition, quite the opposite.
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