Flemming Splidsboel Hansen
As NATO member states around the Baltic Sea and in the Arctic confront Russia over its aggressive policies, they should be prepared for Russia to execute a still wider range of military responses. These responses will be designed to deter and destabilise the NATO member states with the explicit aim of forcing the latter to change their policy towards Russia.
The accession of Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024) to NATO has made the organisational geography simpler: Russia is now confronted by a full group of NATO member states in both the Baltic Sea region (eight NATO member states) and in the Arctic (seven NATO member states). Russia itself has provoked this unwanted development by its illegal invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and by its aggressive policies towards a long list of neighbouring countries, including Finland and Sweden.
The circle of NATO member states in the Baltic Sea region and the Arctic – totalling 12 individual states as the Kingdom of Denmark, Sweden and Finland are in both areas – includes some of the fiercest critics of Russia as well as some of the most ardent supporters of Ukraine. This fact has elevated the two regions to even more prominent positions than usual in the Russian public debate; there is, simply put, a very long list of political preferences and decisions found within and across the 12 NATO member states that Russia will seek to influence and roll back.
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