Richard Arnold
Russia is increasing its military preparedness despite discussions in February about a possible ceasefire after more than three years since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine (Gazeta.ua.org, February 13). Russian society is discussing the possibility of a second wave of mobilization, even though Moscow has denied this. A member of the State Duma Defense Committee, Lieutenant General Viktor Sobolev, claimed, “There are no grounds for a new wave of mobilization … It is only necessary to knock out the fascists who occupied Ukraine from the territory of our subjects” (This News!, February 3). Other indicators suggest that, if not a second wave of conscription, there are at least some new units currently being prepared for battle.
Ataman of the All-Russian Cossack Society Vitaly Kuznetsov announced the formation of the 26th Cossack volunteer battalion, underlining that there are currently 18,500 Cossacks on the line of contact, including over 250 Atamans and 9,000 from the Kuban Cossack army (VSKO.ru, February 6). Cossack units operate under the Combat Army Reserves, or BARS (Боевой Армейский Резерв Страны; Boyevoy Armeyskiy Rezerv Strany), and have been involved in some of the fiercest fighting in Moscow’s war against Ukraine (see EDM, October 10, 2023, January 16, September 30, 2024). At the same time, and in line with previously announced funding increases for the Cossacks, the funding for the Kuban Cossacks increased from 1.4 billion to 1.7 billion rubles (~$15.9 million to ~$19.4 million), expanding the potential reach of BARS as well as money devoted to cadet education and other youth outreach (see EDM, October 17, 2022, November 8, 2023, February 27, November 27, 2024; Kavkaz.realii, February 7). Further, in 2024 Cossacks were obliged to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense enlisting them in the “mobilizational reserve” with fewer constraints on being called to war (see EDM, September 16, 2024; Kavkaz.realii, February 7). These actions indirectly increase Russia’s mobilization force even if no formal mobilization is declared.
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