Roderic Lyne
Since Lawrence’s post of 12 March on “Putin’s Dilemma”, Putin has given a “yes, but” response to the American-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal. This is now under discussion between Washington and Moscow. Trump is due to speak to Putin today (19th March) and says that they will be talking about land, power plants and dividing up certain assets. He expresses optimism. Many in America are concerned that Putin is playing Trump.
The conflict cannot simply be resolved as a property transaction. Trump needs to square Russian demands with the minimum Ukrainian requirement for the preservation of their country’s sovereignty and security. He could cut off American aid to Ukraine. In extremis, he could impose sanctions on Ukraine. But he cannot force the Ukrainians to stop defending themselves.
In this post I shall try to explore Putin’s position and where he is leading Russia. I shall argue that a ceasefire is possible, though far from certain; but that an enduring peace, a definitive settlement, will not happen while Putin holds power, which probably means in his lifetime.
The Ukrainian position is clear. They can accept a ceasefire leading into negotiations for a settlement so long as it does not entail a formal surrender of territory, restrictions on their ability to defend themselves (including their ability to import arms) or a requirement to hold elections by a defined date.
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