Eric Lies
Denial does not equate to dominance. In Brandon Weichert’s recent article in this publication, he argues that the United States has potentially “already lost the First Island Chain” due to China’s growing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. He follows that up with the argument that U.S. actions in the Second Island Chain are essentially a tacit acknowledgement of Chinese control of the Taiwan Strait. While the challenges he identified in his piece are very real, his conclusion represents a logical leap that misses the mark.
If we had the unfortunate opportunity to see a cross-strait war, what we would see would be more akin to a bloody game of hide-and-seek as commanders take advantage of localized dominance and openings.
There are three primary issues with these arguments. First, the sheer size of the potential conflict area precludes complete dominance. Second, the development of Second Island Chain basing enables improved distributed lethality and survivability. Third, by decreasing the efficacy of a Chinese surprise attack, the likelihood of deterrence holding increases.
Even if combat was limited to the area immediately around Taiwan, the sheer scope of ocean and airspace that would need to be monitored is immense, not to mention the need to monitor Taiwan itself. While improving, the Chinese ability to collect weapons guidance quality data wouldn’t cover the entire battle space at all times.
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