1 March 2025

How to prevent the next war in Europe: A five-point plan

Claudia Major, Carlo Masala, Christian Mölling & Jana Puglierin

Great-power thinking, disdain for alliances, and a bitter culture war—these three terms describe the new relationship between Europe and the United States following recent developments at the Munich Security Conference.

Although much remains to be seen, the general direction is clear: the US is stepping back from its leading political and military role.

Washington has initiated negotiations with Russia over the heads of Ukraine and other Europeans—presenting everyone with a fait accompli. The US is right to call on Europeans to contribute more to defence and has announced a rebalancing of its own policy towards Asia.

While the substance of these pronouncements was hardly surprising, their scope and sharpness were. The US has not (yet), as feared, announced it will withdraw its troops from Europe. But its actions and behaviour do not appear to be those of an ally. Europe must now try to shape this transatlantic rift itself.

With recent developments, the risk of another war in Europe has increased. In the logic of great-power politics, President Donald Trump immediately offered Russian president Vladimir Putin negotiations—without prior involvement of Ukraine—as if it were no longer a sovereign state.

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