Benjamin Jensen, Mark Montgomery, and Jose M. Macias III
Air superiority remains a decisive factor in modern warfare. As Ukraine continues to defend itself against Russian aggression, policymakers and military planners are grappling with a fundamental question: How many aircraft are required to secure Ukrainian airspace sufficiently to deter Russian provocations?
Part of the Strategic Headwinds series, this commentary outlines the base level requirements for securing Ukraine’s airspace during any ceasefire and protracted peace process. Based on historical precedent, Russia is unlikely to honor an agreement without a formidable foe in their way, thus creating a need to secure the peace with military power, including a mix of foreign observers and missions like “no fly zones” and “aerial policing.” These missions are resource intensive and often involve rotational forces from multiple countries. Based on analyzing historic NATO operations alongside doctrine for counterair missions, we estimate that it will take 40–160 aircraft to protect the skies of Ukraine during a ceasefire and peace process.
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