Ju Hyung Kim
Despite being a key US regional ally, questions are rising about whether South Korea would take proactive measures if China were to initiate hostile actions against Taiwan?
Given its deep economic interdependence with China, South Korea finds itself strategically caught between Washington and Beijing.
To examine this issue, this writer conducted interviews last year with South Korean military officials in which I classified China’s potential hostile actions against Taiwan into three scenarios:
(1) gray zone operations, which include actions such as deploying China’s maritime militia and coast guard vessels to harass Taiwanese ships, thereby exerting pressure on Taiwan without directly provoking open conflict; (2) a naval blockade; and (3) a full-scale military invasion.
There was a strong consensus among the officials on how South Korea should respond if China were to initiate (1) gray zone operations, (2) a naval blockade, or (3) a full-scale invasion of Taiwan.
In all three scenarios, they agreed that South Korea should increase its alert level within the US-ROK Combined Forces and reinforce deterrence against potential North Korean provocations.
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