16 March 2025

How NATO Without US Stacks Up Against Russia

Ellie Cook

Germany's likely next leader, Friedrich Merz, didn't mince words when he said it was his "absolute priority" to "achieve independence" for Europe from the United States.

The remarks, which stunned many last month, were one of the clearest demonstrations of the shock reverberating through NATO's European members and Canada as U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration turned on their heel, striding away from the continent America has propped up for decades.

Europe and America's northern neighbor are now scrambling to work out how vulnerable the rest of NATO really is, and whether it can take on Russia without the steadfast support the U.S. has always provided to its fellow member states.

The White House has publicly said it is refocusing its attention on the Indo-Pacific, but it has also steered toward a rapprochement with Russia that has left many in NATO horrified.

"On paper, the military strength of European NATO matches up quite well with the Russians across domains, but this on-paper strength is deceptive," said William Freer, research fellow in national security at the United Kingdom-based Council on Geostrategy.

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