Benjamin Jensen
Whatever the outcome of the range of bilateral and multilateral talks surrounding Ukraine, one thing is clear: any lasting peace will require a demilitarized zone (DMZ) backed by an international military force. This zone could stretch over thousands of kilometers, traversing complex and hazardous terrain, including bombed-out cities and mine-laden fields. To ensure security, this force must not only act as a deterrent but also have the warfighting capability to counter potential Russian fait accompli attacks along the frontier. And the international force would need to be large enough to support ongoing military training missions integrating Ukraine deeper into the transatlantic security architecture.
Based on analyzing past military missions, the number of foreign troops required to support Ukrainian sovereignty, and security could range from a tripwire force of a battalion to a more doctrinal-sized force of over 100,000 soldiers. And this force will require additional air, naval, and space assets to cover air and maritime corridors Russia could use to launch a future preemptive attack. The security force required to truly safeguard the peace in Ukraine could be as large as the entire military of either Greece or Spain. In other words, peacekeeping in Ukraine has the potential to eclipse previous NATO missions in the Balkans in both its size and complexity.
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