Lawrence Freedman
Sunday’s gathering at Lancaster House in London had been arranged before Friday’s clashes between Trump, Vance, and Zelensky, in the Oval Office, but it gained added significance because of them. With so much in the air, as new opportunities open up while others close down, it is hard to be sure of its long-term significance. But it felt historic.
For years European states have discussed a possible moment when they will depend far less, or even not at all, on the United States for their security. Some have viewed this prospect with enthusiasm; others with apprehension. None have prepared for it.
Now circumstances have conspired to require that they address the challenges posed right away. This will not be a simple replacement of one security order with another. There are choices to be made on both sides of the Atlantic and any new arrangements will contain elements of the old. The changes will come about not because of careful deliberation but because of the pressure of events, and in particular how to cope with the continuing Russian aggression against Ukraine when the American president not only acts according to his mood but also with a limited grasp of the nature of the conflict.
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