Charlie Edwards
In the coming weeks and months, Russia is likely to intensify its hybrid warfare to sow discord in European capitals and populations via cyberspace, including through digital vandalism, sabotage and influence operations. The situation is increasingly uncertain, not least due to news that the United States Cyber Command has paused offensive cyber operations against Russia. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s orders may have been part of a wider negotiation package to draw Russian President Vladimir Putin into talks on the future of Ukraine. However, the reality is that a halt in cyber operations risks emboldening Russian cyber actors who over the past year have expanded their targeting to include aviation, education, government, law enforcement and military organisations.
In a recent assessment, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service suggested that ‘Russia may continue its sabotage campaign’ in 2025 in an effort ‘to undermine support for Ukraine’ and that ‘acts of arson, vandalism and destruction may recur across the continent.’ Likewise, in its Military Intelligence Review 2025, the Finnish Defence Forces stated that ‘Russia will likely increase the use of all hybrid methods as it seeks to cause disunity within NATO and the European Union. These methods include cyber and information influencing … [and] effects on energy infrastructure.’ The Danish Defence Intelligence Service also raised the likelihood in January 2025 of the Kremlin authorising a destructive cyber attack.
The trajectory of the Russia–Ukraine war and pressure by Washington have directed Europe’s focus chiefly on increasing defence spending for cutting-edge capabilities and rebuilding stockpiles, munitions and enablers. However, these assessments and recent Russian actions in the digital sphere indicate that Europe’s deterrence will require both sword and shield to avoid disaster.
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