Mike Kelly
The Road to Riyadh…
Opportunity lost
President Putin missed an opportunity with Ukraine’s move toward an EU Association Agreement (AA) in 2013. Had Putin endorsed Ukraine’s AA aspiration, while simultaneously signing on with Russia’s EEU (Eurasian Economic Union), with security and diplomatic ties, Ukraine could have served as a conduit between Russia and the EU. But Putin’s zero-sum game mentality could not reconcile the economic, informational, and intellectual benefits against the potential loss of control from the imagined threat of the rule of law, liberal democracy, and social values, etc. The subsequent Maidan Revolution and fleeing of the pro-Russian Ukrainian President Yanukovych led to Russia unnecessarily seizing the Russian naval port in Crimea; Russia had a lease on the facility until 2040. The negligible Western reaction was followed by further advances into the eastern Ukraine oblasts, which again went largely unpunished except with economic sanctions and some Russian asset freezing. Renewed Russian advances in 2022 finally resulted in belated overt Western military aid, financial and diplomatic support for Ukraine.
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