Fabian Hoffmann
On 18 March, following a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the latter gave the impression that Russia would temporarily halt attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure for a period of 30 days. Just hours later, Russia launched a large-scale drone attack on critical infrastructure in Slovyansk, including hospitals, resulting in widespread blackouts, while also accusing Ukraine of having breached the ceasefire agreement first.
Despite this, reports indicate that Ukrainian and Russian delegations are preparing to meet with U.S. negotiators in Riyadh to discuss a limited ceasefire agreement focused on protecting critical infrastructure. While the situation remains unclear at the time of writing, this episode offers a timely reason to reassess the long-range strike campaigns of both Ukraine and Russia—their changing character, new developments, and which side stands to gain more from a potential “ceasefire in the sky”, should it come about.
Mass is king
Similar to tactical-level warfighting efforts—now dominated by an almost absurd proliferation of FPV drones—both Ukraine and Russia’s long-range strike campaigns are increasingly shaped by the logic of “massed precision.”
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