Olena Guseinova
Three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the world is still grappling with the war’s implications. While the conflict has upended long-held Western assumptions about the post-Cold War order, some have yet to fully grasp the fact that realpolitik is not merely back in fashion – it never truly left the scene.
Europe was forced to confront this sobering reality the hard way. Will the Indo-Pacific do better? Much will depend on the conclusions regional powers draw from Ukraine’s experience. The war may have offered a wealth of insights, but their interpretations remain highly contested. If misread – whether due to perceived regional differences, a lingering belief in the resilience of the liberal order, or misplaced faith in China’s pragmatism – the region risks echoing the strategic missteps that proved disastrous for Europe. To avoid such pitfalls, the Indo-Pacific must critically reassess and internalise the war’s most vital lessons.
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