A new HCSS report by Davis Ellison, Tim Sweijs, and Timur Ghirotto warns that emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) threaten global strategic stability, highlighting the need for stronger arms control, especially with China. As technologies like hypersonic missiles, artificial intelligence (AI), cyber warfare, and space-based systems advance, their impact on nuclear deterrence grows more critical.
While alarmist narratives often exaggerate the risks of EDTs broadly, they do pose real, specific threats by undermining second-strike capabilities, increasing crisis instability, and fuelling arms races. This report identifies three primary ways EDTs affect strategic stability:
- Enabling First Strikes – Advanced technologies may encourage pre-emptive attacks.
- Disrupting Command and Control (C3) Systems – Cyber and space-based disruptions could weaken deterrence by impairing communication and early-warning systems.
- Enhancing Second-Strike Defences – New measures to conceal or protect nuclear assets may shift deterrence dynamics.
Key EDTs analysed include hypersonic missiles, cyber warfare, directed energy weapons, space-based technologies, and AI, all of which are critical for NATO and European defence.
No comments:
Post a Comment