Paul Goble
Declining water levels in the Caspian Sea are reducing the amount of cargo ships this body of water can carry, as well as the functioning of major ports. This decline threatens both Russia’s North-South corridor and the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) One Belt, One Road initiative (Caspian Herald, March 15). Although Russia is the more profoundly affected of the two due to problems moving cargo east and south in the Caspian, the PRC has also increasingly relied on the Caspian to ship container traffic across to Central Asia, which it then transports via train (see EDM, April 11, 2023). The water levels of the Caspian have been declining for years, leading to an expanding shoreline, which has sparked academic debate about whether this is a permanent issue or one that can be reversed in the coming decades (Window on Eurasia, March 27, 2024; September 21, 2024). Declining water levels have also led to political discussions about whether the Caspian could be developed to serve as the primary route for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s North-South corridor (see EDM, April 11, August 8, 2023). It only emerged as a high-level political issue, however, when Moscow found that the falling water levels meant it could no longer move its Caspian Flotilla across the Caspian and through the Volga-Don canal to take part in Russia’s war against Ukraine (Window on Eurasia, March 27, 2024). The issue further gained importance in August 2024, when Putin focused on how the declining water levels could affect his North-South trade corridor during a meeting with the Governor of the Astrakhan Oblast, which borders the Caspian (URA.ru, August 27, 2024).
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