11 March 2025

Cutting the Line: Imposed Cost and Measured Effects In Strategic Competition and Deterrence

Maurice "Duc" Duclos

Introduction

Today's great power dynamics resist simple categorization. While U.S. joint doctrine describes a Competition Continuum from cooperation through competition to conflict, the reality is more complex, with relationships existing simultaneously at different points along this spectrum depending on the domain and context. For instance, the United States and China maintain economic cooperation in certain sectors while engaging in intense rivalry over territorial claims in the South China Sea. They may compete for influence in Southeast Asian nations while approaching rivalry in cyber operations. Similarly, U.S.-Russia relations show this multi-layered complexity, with limited cooperation in space operations coexisting alongside sharp rivalry over Ukraine.

This multi-domain nature of modern interstate relations creates unique challenges for measuring success. Different domains require different metrics and approaches—what constitutes success in economic competition may differ substantially from measures of effectiveness in influence operations or cyber rivalry. Therefore, the principle of cost imposition must be understood and applied within specific contextual and domain frameworks.

As Thomas Schelling observed in Arms and Influence, military power's greatest utility often lies not in destruction but in its ability to alter adversaries' strategic calculations. This principle takes on heightened importance in an era when relationships span the spectrum from cooperation to rivalry across multiple domains.


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