Arvind Gupta
Introduction
International politics is never static. A new geopolitical environment, based on a new balance of power is shaping up. Stresses have been building up in the so-called rule-based order, set up by the victors of the Second World War in 1945, for a considerable time since the Cold War ended. The disintegration of the Soviet Union, 9/11 terrorist attacks, the global financial crisis of 2008 –10, COVID-19, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2014 and 2022, and the disintegration of Yugoslavia in which the West played a key role, were some of the notable seismic events that strained the older world order. The bipolar world order of the Cold War years gave way briefly to unipolarity and then multipolarity with the rise of new powers like China, India and others. The inherently undemocratic UN system of multilateralism has become increasingly dysfunctional. It failed to keep international peace and stability as multiple wars broke out with regular frequency in different parts of the world. The rise of new powers and new regional groupings has also challenged the UN system.
Globalization that began in the 80s became hyper globalization of the late 20th and the 21st century. Globalization created a lot of wealth but also acute inequity. It failed the test of sabka saath, sabka vikas or inclusive growth. Production became decentralized leading to extended supply chains. The problem was that these supply chains were concentrated in a few countries and were highly vulnerable to geopolitical and natural disruptions. This was amply demonstrated during the Covid in 2020 when the global economy almost came to a halt as millions of lives were being lost and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 when grain and energy markets were severely disrupted. The disturbances caused by geopolitics led to the disruptions of supply chains.
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