Timothy R. Heath
With indicators already pointing to a volatile level of political stress in the United States, a large-scale displacement of educated elites by artificial general intelligence (AGI) could spark a convulsive breakdown of the state.
Technological innovation has been a major driver of productivity and economic growth since the start of the industrial age. However, gains have almost invariably come at the expense of workers with lower skill and education levels. As but one example, automation from 1990-2007 resulted in the loss of an estimated 400,000 jobs in the United States, primarily among non-college educated workers.
Educated elites often avoided large-scale job displacement from technological innovation in part by possessing difficult to automate skills. But their vulnerability could increase if the most visionary ideals of artificial intelligence (AI) come to pass. Already, analysts warn that white collar jobs could be threatened by generative AI technologies, which have shown an impressive ability to carry out tasks involving images, video, and text. A Pew study concluded that one in five American jobs have a “high exposure” to artificial intelligence, with high earners and the college educated most exposed. The situation for educated elites could worsen significantly. Some experts have predicted that “artificial general intelligence” (AGI) may soon be available. Although prospects for and definitions of this potential technology remain hotly debated, AGI may be generally understood as a versatile, reliable general intelligence that is comparable or superior to human intelligence.[1] A report by Goldman Sachs assessed that AGI capable of carrying out work “indistinguishable” from human output could wipe out a fourth of current jobs and 300 million jobs worldwide.
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