Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns & Mackenzie Knight
Within the past five years, China has significantly expanded its ongoing nuclear modernization program by fielding more types and greater numbers of nuclear weapons than ever before. Since our previous edition on China in May 2024, China has continued to develop its three new missile silo fields for solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), continued the construction of new silos for its liquid-fuel DF-5 ICBMs, has been developing new variants of ICBMs and advanced strategic delivery systems, and has likely produced excess warheads for these systems once they are deployed. China has also further expanded its dual-capable DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile force, which appears to have completely replaced the medium-range DF-21 in the nuclear role. At sea, China has been refitting its Type 094 ballistic missile submarines with the longer-range JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile. In addition, China has recently reassigned an operational nuclear mission to some of its bombers with an air-launched ballistic missile that might have nuclear capability. In all, China’s nuclear expansion is among the largest and most rapid modernization campaigns of the nine nuclear-armed states.
We estimate that China has produced a stockpile of approximately 600 nuclear warheads for delivery by land-based ballistic missiles, sea-based ballistic missiles, and bombers.
The Pentagon reported in 2024 that China’s nuclear stockpile had “surpassed 600 operational warheads as of mid-2024” (US Department of Defense 2024, IX). But Chinese warheads are not “operational” like the US and Russian nuclear warheads deployed on operational missiles and at bomber bases; nearly all Chinese warheads are thought to be stored separate from the launchers. Moreover, we cannot replicate the warhead estimate based on the reported and observable force structure unless we assign warheads to a significant number of China’s new silos.
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