Benedetta Girardi, Davis Ellison and Tim Sweijs
China’s coercive campaign against Taiwan has escalated in recent years. Beijing’s approach has evolved from putting political and economic pressure on the island’s leadership and now includes expansive military exercises considered by many to be rehearsals for forced unification. It has sparked debate amongst political and military experts about what form such forced unification could take: Will the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) services seek to strangle the island’s economy through a semi-permanent blockade? Will they boil the frog over time through an on-and-off blockade? Or will they land a knock-out punch in a Sea Land Invasion?
If one thing is certain, it’s this: Beijing’s calculation will be shaped by whether Taiwan is ready to defend itself. For Taiwan to do so successfully, it will have to learn lessons from the war against Ukraine, a country that failed to deter an attack from a much more powerful neighbor, yet has been able to successfully defend itself since.
From the Steppes of Ukraine to the Shores of Formosa
Though distinct in terms of geography, size, and military doctrine, Taiwan and Ukraine share many parallels. Both are democracies with strong national identities threatened by authoritarian neighbors that claim historical sovereignty over their territories. They are strategic hotspots in their respective regions. Ukraine serves as a buffer between Russia and NATO, while Taiwan is a critical component of the Indo-Pacific security and trade architecture. Last but not least, Kyiv and Taipei both face overwhelming military asymmetry against their adversaries.
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