Alastair Macbeath
For over 60 years, illicit economies have fueled Myanmar’s conflicts, shaping political power, financing insurgencies, and sustaining armed actors. Since the 2021 coup, the interplay between organized crime and conflict—the so-called ‘crime–conflict nexus’—has deepened, making criminal markets a critical factor in Myanmar’s future.
This report examines how illicit trade, from drug trafficking and arms smuggling to human trafficking and environmental crimes, drives instability in Myanmar. Illicit economies in Myanmar are deeply intertwined with the country’s political structures and conflict dynamics. For decades, criminal markets have not only funded armed groups but also shaped power balances at local, regional, and national levels. This interdependence means that actors engaged in these illicit networks could become key players in any future peace settlement, raising concerns about how crime and governance might continue to overlap.
One of the most lucrative and destabilizing industries in Myanmar is the heroin and synthetic drug trade. The country remains one of the world’s largest producers of methamphetamine and opium, with trafficking networks extending across Thailand, China, India, and Laos. These illicit revenues fuel both the military government and ethnic armed groups, ensuring that drug production remains a central driver of conflict. Without alternative economic opportunities for communities dependent on opium cultivation, efforts to dismantle the trade will be met with resistance.
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