Michael O'Hanlon
After three years of fighting, Russia and Ukraine have established mainly a stalemate, even if the battle is trending slightly in Russia’s favor at present.
Yet Russia is suffering more than 1,000 casualties a day, killed and wounded, and Ukraine perhaps half as many (out of a population only one-fourth as large). Both sides may decide that it is no longer worth sacrificing so much blood and treasure for minimal territorial gains.
President Trump’s return to the White House also changes the conversation, given his emphasis on the importance of ending the fighting soon as America’s top priority in the war (and I believe Trump is correct in this view, provided that Ukraine can remain a sovereign and independent country, even if I disagree with Mr. Trump about the causes of the war and the legitimacy of the Zelensky presidency).
To be sure, the wrong peace deal could embolden Putin to reignite the war somewhere down the road after rearming (if too soft) or permanently poison Russia’s relations with the West and perhaps even increase the odds of war between Russia and NATO (if too harsh) or lead to the overthrow of the Zelensky government in Ukraine and installment of a puppet regime subservient to Moscow (if too impatient/rushed).
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