Mohammad Ayatollahi Tabaar
Over the past year, Iran has grappled with a series of setbacks. Hamas and Hezbollah, Tehran’s long-standing nonstate regional allies, have been weakened by Israel. President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria collapsed suddenly and spectacularly. The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency, meanwhile, signals a revival of the “maximum pressure” policies that hobbled the Iranian economy starting in 2018. These looming challenges have led many U.S. officials and analysts to argue that the Islamic Republic is facing a strategic defeat. Richard Haass, writing in Foreign Affairs in January, suggested that “Iran is weaker and more vulnerable than it has been in decades, likely since its decadelong war with Iraq or even since the 1979 revolution.” According to this view, Iran has presented its opponents with an opportune moment to target its nuclear facilities or extract major concessions for a new nuclear deal.
The prevailing belief that Iran is now more susceptible to U.S. coercion or Israeli attack, however, is not shared by Tehran. The Islamic Republic views these external challenges as temporary setbacks, not signs of defeat. In Iran’s view, Hamas and Hezbollah, despite being badly beaten, have actually emerged as winners in their asymmetric conflict against Israel. They survived as guerrilla organizations against a powerful U.S.-backed conventional army. Critically, Hamas has retained at least some popularity among Palestinians, and Hezbollah continues to enjoy the backing of Shiites in Lebanon. In Yemen, the Iran-aligned Houthis have solidified their role as a steadfast supporter of the Palestinian cause and a key member of Tehran’s so-called axis of resistance by attacking Israel and disrupting shipping in the Red Sea.
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