Artificial Intelligence and National Defence: A Strategic Foresight Analysis

Alex Wilner & Ryan Atkinson

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Introduction

Foresight, the Future of AI and National Defence

Strategic foresight is the systematic study of the future. It is both loved and misunderstood by casual observers and experts alike. It is loved because, at its core, foresight’s very ethos rests on the simple truth that strategic surprise is a dangerous position in which to find oneself. Foresight’s structured approach to thinking about medium- and longterm change and uncertainty can provide a solution to understanding and avoiding adverse developments. As a methodology with dozens of research tools and techniques, foresight promises us forward-leaning insights beneficial to our longterm survival and growth. The process allows for the systemic exploration of possibilities and trends that shape the future. Weak signals are identified as early indicators of potentially significant change, which inform multiple future scenarios covering a range of possibilities and reduce the risk of being surprised by unexpected events.

Foresight is often incorrectly conflated with forecasting, a related methodology with deep and well-regarded ties to economics and political science, mathematics and physics, computer and data sciences, management and business administration, Earth and climate sciences, and other disciplines. Forecasting, using the terminology of “prediction,” promises insights on the nearterm future — often from minutes to weeks to months ahead — anchored to quantifiable data, statistics, simulations and structured modelling. Foresight, by contrast, speaks of “anticipation,” with promises of insights on the far future — usually years to decades to generations ahead — driven by qualitative observations, systems dynamics, informed intuition and a speculative and grounded accounting of change. A central difference is that prediction focuses on calculating and estimating likely future events given the current relevant data, whereas anticipation involves the preparation for a range of future scenarios with an emphasis on adaptability to uncertain futures.