23 March 2025

AI Dependence and Political Blind Spots Undermine Beijing’s War Strategy

Shannon Vaughn

Introduction

China’s military modernization is advancing at an extraordinary pace, driven by its CMF strategy, which integrates technological advancements from the private sector directly into the PLA. A key component of this transformation is the use of AI (人工智能) for cognitive warfare (认知战), a strategy akin to Chapter 3 of Sun Tzu’s Art of War, which is aimed at shaping battlefield conditions and manipulating the perceptions of adversaries long before kinetic conflict begins. By leveraging AI-driven predictive modeling (人工智能预测建模), behavioral analytics (行为分析), and social control mechanisms (社会控制机制), Beijing seeks to offset the PLA’s fundamental weakness: its lack of modern combat experience.

China’s homegrown cognitive warfare doctrine extends beyond military applications, leveraging AI-enhanced psychological operations to influence domestic and foreign audiences alike. This approach incorporates disinformation campaigns, narrative shaping, and public opinion manipulation at home, which could prove beneficial to future non-kinetic operations abroad. Reports suggest that China has already deployed sophisticated machine learning models to create personalized propaganda aimed at swaying opinions in Taiwan and other key regions. Such tactics serve a dual purpose: dissuading adversaries from engaging in military conflict while reinforcing the CCP’s hold on domestic stability.

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