Alessandro Marrone
The tragic third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began on 24 February 2022 witnesses the start of diplomatic talks between Russia and the United States on the possible end of the conflict. Three years of large-scale, high-intensity war of attrition in Europe, with over a million dead or injured soldiers, offers at least four politico-military lessons for European countries, the EU and NATO. Lessons to bear in mind through this negotiation for the future not only of Ukraine but of the security of the whole continent.
Russia is willing and able to bear the enormous costs of a war of invasion…
The first lesson is that the Russian regime has been able to bear the political, military and economic cost of an unprovoked war of invasion beyond national borders for three years. Over half a million Russian soldiers killed or wounded on Ukrainian soil, almost a million citizens who fled abroad to avoid conscription, the huge military losses – from half of the Black Sea fleet to hundreds of destroyed tanks –, as well as inflation and economic disruptions caused by Western sanctions, have not significantly weakened Putin’s leadership. Sure, there was an attempted mutiny by the Wagner mercenary company in 2023, nevertheless the rebels were eliminated without too many problems for the Kremlin.
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