For decades, mainstream analysts unanimously predicted that China’s economy would surpass that of the United States. The Economist projected in 2010 that this would happen in 2019. Goldman Sachs forecast in 2011 that this point would be reached in 2026. The Centre for Economics and Business Research, a British think tank, predicted that 2028 would be the year. Chinese government economist Justin Yifu Lin was even bolder, arguing in 2011 that, by 2030, China’s economy would be twice the size of America’s.
The Chinese authorities were initially wary of economists’ rosy projections, but began to embrace them in 2014, touting China’s institutional advantage. In 2016, the government added “culture” to its “confidence doctrine,” which already included the “path,” “theory,” and “system” of “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” But these “four confidences” – and the lofty projections of mainstream analysts – neglected a crucial factor: the legacy of China’s one-child policy.
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