Wrestling with Complexity: How the PLA Assesses Combat Capability

Kevin McCauley

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INTRODUCTION

PLA-affiliated researchers discuss multiple methods for conducting a combat capability assessment with varying levels of accuracy. Some PLA researchers consider their assessment efforts to be relatively outdated, compared to some foreign militaries’, such as the United States.’ The PLA’s research on this topic frequently references gaps in its approach, preventing it from adopting more standardized and rigorous methods, such as insufficient basic theoretical research, a lack of understanding of various evaluation methods, and a failure to develop combat capability assessments that can accurately evaluate complex nonlinear systems such as the system of systems operational theory that is the foundation for PLA transformation efforts. Many PLA theorists have advocated for the development of new and improved methods that incorporate more qualitative and accurate analytic methods to improve assessment accuracy, suggesting that improvements may be underway. Researchers also recommend incorporating evaluations of the operational environment (OE) and lessons learned from opposing force training, which would enhance the accuracy, complexity, and flexibility of assessment methods. PLA researchers believe evaluations during the period of mechanized warfare were relatively simple since they primarily used standardized quantitative analytic methods. The vastly greater level of complexity envisioned in future warfare operational concepts that incorporate informationized technologies and increasingly intelligent technologies greatly complicates evaluations. The PLA’s requirements for victory are geared toward the realities of future conflict, but its development of a system of systems operational approach integrating forces, weapons, and equipment, creating synergy between individual systems and modular forces, makes traditional quantitative modeling and analysis difficult. Additionally, incorporating analysis of terrain, weather, enemy forces, and other OE factors increases the layers of complexity in the evaluation process.