Lawrence J. Korb, and Stephen Cimbala
Drones and other autonomous vehicle technologies have already significantly influenced the conduct of war. The technology has evolved from simple reconnaissance tools to versatile platforms capable of conducting surveillance, targeted strikes, and electronic warfare. Their low cost, flexibility, and ability to operate without putting human pilots at risk have made them increasingly valuable in conventional military conflicts. The development of more advanced drones, capable of carrying out precision strikes with a high degree of autonomy, has prompted their consideration in strategic scenarios involving nuclear deterrence and warfare.
With their precision targeting ability, drones can also be integrated into nuclear deterrence strategies. For instance, they could also ensure the survival of a country’s nuclear forces by providing continuous surveillance and early warning against potential nuclear threats. Drones can also support a more viable “second-strike” capability, potentially increasing the credibility of nuclear deterrence by ensuring that a country retains a means to retaliate even after a nuclear first strike.
Deterrence and Escalation
The use of drones in situations where nuclear escalation is a possibility could lead to unintended consequences. The increasing autonomy of drones raises the risk of misinterpretation, as drones could be perceived as a precursor to a more severe attack, even when only conducting reconnaissance. This could trigger a preemptive nuclear strike by an adversary, leading to an inadvertent escalation into full-scale nuclear war. Cold War and subsequent histories show that the danger of inadvertent nuclear escalation is not trivial.
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