28 February 2025

Ukraine’s ground-based air defence: evolution, resilience and pressure

Giorgio Di Mizio & Dr Michael Gjerstad

Ukraine’s air defences have proven resilient in countering three years of Russian air and missile attacks and have evolved in response to an ever-changing threat landscape. A key target of these attacks is Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, which, according to reports, is consequently unable to meet demand.

Western donations of air defence systems have enabled Ukraine to adapt, but the continued and increasing supply and support of these systems is critical given Russia’s plan to ramp up the production of missiles and one-way-attack uninhabited aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs).

President Trump’s recent criticism of President Zelenskyy and the amount of aid the United States has supplied has made the future of continued support at current levels uncertain. Given Ukraine's reliance on Western aid, any reduction threatens its air defence capabilities, with Zelenskyy having recently raised the issue of shortages of Patriot interceptors.

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