Fabian Hoffmann
Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on social media that he had a “highly productive” call with Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding the war in Ukraine. From a European perspective, Trump's framing—flattering Putin while speaking over the heads of Ukrainians—reads like a worst-case scenario.
Early hopes that Trump might actually increase pressure on Russia now seem greatly misplaced. More than ever, the American president appears determined to settle the war as quickly as possible, even if it means overriding Ukraine’s interests and those of America’s European allies.
While Trump sees a “deal” to resolve a geopolitical nuisance and score political points at home, Europeans—and, most importantly, Ukrainians—face an outcome that may shape their security environment for years and decades to come, with potentially disastrous consequences for the continent.
The problem with the American peace plan, as it stands—allowing Russia to retain captured territory since February 2022 while gradually lifting sanctions—is that it pressures Ukraine into a settlement that preserves much of Russia’s power and rewards its imperial ambitions, all while the U.S. pulls back from the European continent. Under these conditions, a follow-on war in Ukraine within the next five years, whether to seize more territory or to assert political control over Kyiv, seems almost inevitable.
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