26 February 2025

Three Years On, What’s Next for Ukraine and Europe?

Daniel Fried, Ulrich Speck, Agathe Demarais, Nathalie Tocci, Garvan Walshe, C. Raja Mohan, Jo Inge Bekkevold, Mick Ryan, Keir Giles, and Stefan Theil

On the eve of the anniversary of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the United States has entered talks with Russia to settle the war—without Kyiv’s involvement or consent. This week, it became increasingly apparent that U.S. President Donald Trump seeks a deal largely on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terms.

Trump also seems to have aligned with many of the Kremlin’s views—not just on Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, but also on Europe’s future security order. What’s more, Washington seems to be making common cause with Moscow by boosting the same illiberal European political movements and attacking the same European governments, most notably with the support U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and social media titan Elon Musk have been giving the pro-Russian Alternative for Germany ahead of that country’s election on Sunday.

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