17 February 2025

The Subtle Invasion: China’s Long-Game In Ukraine

Drew N. Peterson

While Beijing is 4,000 miles from Kyiv, China’s support for Russia’s war has been significant even as the conflict has presented conundrums for China’s Belt and Road Initiative to knit together the entire Eurasian landmass into a single, Chinese-dominated intermodal logistics and trading network. Over the last three years, Beijing has played a careful balancing act between its partnership with Russia, its broader global ambitions, and its ostensible prioritization of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

As the incoming second Trump Administration increasingly looks for potential resolutions to the conflict, it will be important to recall the history of China’s involvement in Ukraine before and during the war on an economic and technological level. Just as no analysis of any international issue today is complete without a China angle, China’s involvement in Ukraine must be better understood, especially in light of any potential role Beijing might aim to play in Ukraine’s post-conflict reconstruction.

Opening The Wallet

China’s opportunistic economic involvement in Ukraine predates Russia’s deeper invasion of the country in 2022 and has evolved in response to the last three years of full-scale war. Ukraine joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2017, and in 2019 China surpassed Russia as Ukraine’s largest trading partner. China became a top importer of Ukrainian foodstuffs, energy commodities, and armaments while pioneering investments and construction projects in Ukrainian infrastructure, such as port terminals, transit, and “clean” energy.

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