Carl Thayer
Four major developments shaped the security environment in the South China Sea in 2024: (1) increased Chinese coercion against Philippine naval vessels and aircraft; (2) adoption of a new maritime defense strategy by the Philippines; (3) Vietnam’s stepped-up construction activities in the Spratly Islands; and (4) slow progress in negotiations on a Code of Conduct (COC).
Chinese Coercion
In 2024, China markedly stepped up its intimidation, harassment, and coercion against Philippine Navy, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), and civilian vessels and aircraft operating legally in the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). China also perfected the art of surging large numbers of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), China Coast Guard (CCG), China Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels into the West Philippine Sea (the name in the Philippines for the parts of the South China Sea within Manila’s EEZ). The highest surge totaled 207 Chinese vessels of all types on September 10, following the confrontation at Sabina Shoal discussed below.
In addition, China resorted to lawfare in passing legislation, such as the Provisions on Administrative Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies (enacted May 15), to give it ostensible legal cover to detain foreign vessels in “waters under Chinese jurisdiction.” In November, China issued the coordinates for baselines around Huangyan Dao (the Chinese name for Scarborough Shoal) and deposited a copy with the United Nations.
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