Eric Rosenbach, Ethan Lee & Bethany Russell
Introduction
Strategies of Disruption
The United States and China are locked in an economic and security competition. Since the mid-1990s, Beijing has invested the equivalent of hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars to expand the capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).2 It has expanded the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) into the world’s largest by ship count, built the largest aviation force in Asia, and established an extensive network of overlapping air defense and long-range artillery systems.3 Beijing is also increasing Chinese military strength through investments in artificial intelligence and quantum computing, which will likely improve the PLA’s ability to track and strike adversaries.4 These new military capabilities are not just for show; the PLA has intensified its military activities around Taiwan since August 2022, rehearsing blockades and long-range strikes, conducting regular violations of Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, sailing vessels near Taiwan’s waters, and allegedly launching cyberattacks against Taiwan’s digital infrastructure.5
While the United States still holds an overall advantage in military technology and capabilities, China does not need to execute its actions perfectly or simultaneously to undermine key elements of U.S. strategy and level the playing field.6 Wargames suggest that in a conflict over Taiwan today, Washington could lose dozens of ships—including its forward-deployed aircraft carriers in the region—and run out of long-range munitions within the first week.7 A “fair fight” often means barely coming out ahead, a dangerous prospect given China’s proximity to key U.S. allies and Washington’s competing interests in Europe and the Middle East.8
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