27 February 2025

The Art of a Ukraine Deal

Michael Froman

Monday will mark the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the face of heroic Ukrainian resistance and hundreds of billions of dollars in Western aid, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation,” initially envisioned as a fait accompli, has devolved into a grinding war of attrition.

U.S. President Donald Trump is determined to bring a swift end to the conflict, and earlier this week, his and Putin’s envoys met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, for four-and-a-half hours of negotiations. Ukrainian and European diplomats were notably excluded.

Trump has long believed that our European allies and Ukraine are freeloaders that have exploited the largess of his predecessors and entangled the United States in another ill-advised war of choice. He wants the Europeans to underwrite their own security, not to mention Ukraine’s. In order for Europe and Ukraine to earn seats at the table, he has suggested, they will have to pay up, with Europe agreeing to spend more on defense and Ukraine having to pay back the American aid it previously received. This sent shockwaves through the region last week.

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