Dave Pitts
The recent tariffs against China are obviously getting a lot of attention. China is a major trading partner, so the idea of an escalating tariff or trade war raises legitimate economic concerns. Beyond the potential impact to American business and consumers, it’s an honest question if tariffs can actually result in a meaningful change in Chinese behavior toward the U.S. I leave that part of the debate to others.
China likely prefers this focus on a war of tariffs with the United States. That attention deflects from what China continues to do every day in the gray zone of competition to violate U.S. sovereignty, undermine U.S. national security, and diminish U.S. global influence.
For those unfamiliar with the term, we might describe “gray zone” as the geopolitical space between peace and war where nations conduct activities to advance their national interests and weaken their adversaries, without triggering a military response. Gray-zone activities may set the conditions for a future war, but remain below a threshold that would provoke an immediate military response.
China is probably willing to make some concessions in a tariff or trade war with the U.S. in order to meet more strategic objectives. If China can keep its gray-zone attacks against the United States in the background, overshadowed by the ebb and flow of tariffs and trade disputes, then it avoids having to acknowledge those ongoing attacks and it avoids any accountability for its actions. That outcome would be a win for China.
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